COMMON ANALYSIS
Last update: August 2023

The situation in Gedo should be seen in light of the situation in the neighbouring regions of Bakool, Bay, Middle Juba and Lower Juba.

Main COI references: [Security 2023, 2.1.1., pp. 59-67; COI Update 2023, 1.3.1., p. 13; 1.3.4., pp. 16-19; Security 2021, 2.1.1., pp. 45-48; Actors, 7.1., pp. 77-79]

General information

Gedo is located in the south-west corner of the country and shares international borders with Kenya and Ethiopia. It is the second-largest region by territorial size in Somalia and it consists of six districts. The region’s capital is Garbahaarey.

The clan composition of Gedo is diverse. The largest and most politically and militarily powerful clan is the Marehan (Darood), which constitutes about half or more of the total population. The Rahanweyn (or Digil-Mirifle) clan also predominates in some areas. The Rahanweyn clan predominates in rural areas, on the east bank, while Hawiye clans are also present.

In 2021, UNOCHA estimated the population of Gedo region at 736 706 inhabitants.

Background and actors involved in armed confrontations

The under-development of the Gedo region contributes to endemic communal conflicts over resources and to clan clashes over control of valued trade towns. The Marehan clan exercises ‘hegemonic control’ over Gedo region, fuelling endemic clashes with the Garre and Rahanweyn clans. Also, Marehan sub-clans (indigenous versus relocated Marehan) frequently clash over power, eldership, and resources. The Marehan are also divided by allegiance to or opposition to Al-Shabaab, which has a strong presence in Gedo and which recruits heavily from the clan.

Due to its strategic location bordering Kenya and Ethiopia, Gedo is of specific interest for Al-Shabaab. As of November 2022, Al-Shabaab reportedly controlled parts of Gedo region in and around Cows Qurun (or Ows Qurun) in the north-western part bordering Kenya and in and around the city Ceel Adde (or El Adde) in the central part, as well as most of the areas bordering Middle Juba. In the northern part of the region, control over the area around Luuq up to the bordering areas to Kenya, Ethiopia, Bay and Bakool was reportedly mixed or unclear. Al-Shabaab reportedly controlled parts of Badhere. In October 2022, governmental sources reported that Al-Shabaab faced ‘the biggest offensive in recent years’, losing ground in Gedo by Somali and ATMIS/AMISOM forces. The Somali security forces reportedly captured Al-Shabaab bases in Doolow and Luuq towns in July 2022, while government forces operations in the same month aimed at reopening regional roads controlled by Al-Shabaab. In August 2022, Ethiopian troops were deployed near the border to support Somali forces’ fight against Al-Shabaab. As of February 2022, Al-Shabaab reportedly had influence over 83 % of communities, maintaining an active network of informants and operatives and having taken over both the judiciary and the economy. Al-Shabaab was responsible for about 64 % of the reported security incidents between July 2021 and November 2022.

In the reference period (July 2021 – November 2022), the conflict dynamics in the region included a number of operations carried out by ATMIS/AMISOM forces against Al-Shabaab.

Nature of violence and examples of incidents 

Reported illustrative security incidents include, for example, an Al-Shabaab attack on a guesthouse in Bardhere, leaving at least nine people killed. Kenyan and Ethiopian airstrikes in June, August and October 2022 in areas of Gedo, including in some of Al-Shabaab’s strongholds, resulting in civilian casualties, destruction of homes and killing of livestock.

In September 2022, sources reported that Al-Shabaab attacked construction workers, resulting in the death of at least 12 civilians.

In July 2021 two clan militias clashed over a land dispute resulting in the death of 6 people and the injury of 10 others.

Incidents: data

ACLED recorded 134 security incidents (an average of 1.8 security incidents per week) in Gedo region between 1 July 2021 and 30 November 2022. Out of those incidents, 57 were coded as ‘battles’, 55 as ‘explosions/remote violence’ and 22 as ‘violence against civilians’. In the period from 1 December 2022 to 14 April 2023, 22 security incidents were recorded in Gedo representing an average of 1.2 security incidents per week.

Geographical scope

Security incidents occurred in all 6 districts of Gedo with the largest overall number of security incidents recorded in Bardheere (33 incidents), followed by Ceel Waaq district (30 incidents).

Fatalities among civilians and non-civilians

In the 17 months between July 2021 and November 2022, ACLED recorded a total of 122 fatalities in the region. In the 4.5 months between December 2022 and mid-April 2023, ACLED recorded a total of 34 fatalities in the region. Compared to the figures for the population in the region as from 2021, this represents approximately 21 fatalities per 100 000 inhabitants for the whole reference period.

Displacement

As of 14 November 2021, UNOCHA reported that Gedo was one of Somalia’s regions with the highest conflict-induced displacement numbers.

Between July 2021 and November 2022, 24 727 individuals were newly displaced from Gedo, according to PRMN. Almost all of them (99 %) were displaced within the region, while the remaining 182 individuals were displaced to the neighbouring region of Lower Juba. In the same period, conflict and insecurity resulted in additional 10 016 individuals arriving in Gedo from Bakool, Bay and Middle Juba.

Between December 2022 and March 2023, 250 individuals were newly displaced from Gedo, according to PRMN.

Further impact on civilians

Commercial activities continued to be hindered by Al-Shabaab and other actors. The delivery of humanitarian aid was similarly disrupted. Between 16 December 2020 and 6 September 2021, Al-Shabaab repeatedly ambushed vehicles carrying goods from the Ethiopian border. Two humanitarian access incidents were documented by UNOCHA during the reference period.